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Up and up we go as markets continue to rebound despite economies showing more and more signs of weakness.
With a strong start to 2019 for global markets, Kerry Craig - Global Market Strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management, and Jonathan Bayes - Chief Investment Officer, discuss whether this can continue.
Sentiment continues to lift markets across the board with both growth and defensive assets gaining ground.
It is clear that in the future, further regulation will enter our industry. I am confident that this presents our business with more opportunities to thrive and to continue to do our best every day to make a difference in our client's lives.
Mathew Cassidy and Jonathan Bayes welcome us back to 2019 and provide an economic outlook for the year ahead.
A new year brings a turn in sentiment and new opportunities. This month, we envisage the possibilities that 2019 could bring.
Equities continue to fall, but bonds rebound on safe haven demand. This month, we assess how the year has been so far for investors.
As we stand today (December 20th), the Australian share-market looks set to record its first NEGATIVE year since 2011.
Mathew Cassidy and Jonathan Bayes provide a final economic update for 2018 and look ahead at what investors can expect in 2019.
Equities and bonds took a beating over the past 10 weeks despite another quarter of stronger than expected earnings growth and some promise of easing trade tensions. This month, we look at the possible driver for the falls and its implications on valuatio
Jonathan Bayes, Chief Investment Officer and Tim Johansen, Managing Director, Real Estate Finance – Qualitas provide the latest investment update on the local and global economies, and investing in real estate income funds.
In periods of negative returns such as the Great Depression, Japan in the late 80’s, the dot-com bubble and the GFC, Variable Beta long-short equity funds aim to provide investors with increased capital protection.
The risks are rising, in particular around U.S wage pressures, corporate profitability, Italian budget plans and Australian house prices.
Jonathan Bayes, Chief Investment Officer and Thomas King, Chief Investment Officer – Nanuk provide the latest investment update on the local and global economic outlook.
Geopolitical tensions show no signs of abating as the US and China continue to shun discussions to resolve trade issues causing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce their growth forecasts for the first time since July 2016.
So much to cover, and yet it’s so important to sort the important stuff from the noise. But, some context first.
As you all know, we have taken a cautious tone with market exposures since April, believing that many long-term trends will soon end, and that the risk-adjusted returns offered by many investment opportunities might not stack up so favourably under change
In the United States, September Consumer Confidence surged to its highest level since the height of the dot-com craze in 2000. That’s worthy context for the genuine strength in US economic activity, but interestingly too, the highs back then coincided wit
Markets were recovering as the US invited China to resume trade talks, only to come under pressure again as Trump threatened another round of tariffs which he duly delivered.
Markets had a better tone to them this week and were led by a rebound in sentiment in Asia. Gains in Chinese and other Asian share-markets helped fuel positive sentiment in the local miners, reversing 2-3 months of underperformance from that sector.
We drifted again this week and there wasn’t a huge amount to discuss in terms of news-flow or themes, which makes for any easy summary to write.
When coupled with the ongoing weakness in the Australian Dollar, which this week fell to a fresh 2 year low, Australian shares year to date are rather significantly underperforming their U.S peer group by around -15%.
This week we saw quite a few mid-cap ‘market darlings’ miss numbers which led to their shares prices falling sharply.
Geopolitical risks have continued to plague the markets this year, as the US raises tariffs on Turkish goods and has indicated that it may continue to escalate trade wars with China and Russia as well.
The ATO has confirmed that it will no longer accept methods for calculating ECPI, particularly when it comes to a SMSF that has switched from unsegregated to segregated during the course of the financial year.
Over the past four weeks, we saw nascent signs of an emerging market recovery before it was derailed by Turkey sanctions derailing the Lira, followed by an earnings miss by Chinese gaming company Tencent.
The last thing I want is to be self-important, but if you have Australian investment portfolio’s then I’d humbly suggest that you take 5 minutes to read through some of my thoughts.
The Federal Government introduced the First Home Super Saver Scheme, in response to the increasing number of first home buyers finding it difficult to enter the property market. So how does the scheme work, and should it be on your radar?
At the end of a manic week, and with a heavy focus on corporate earnings, I think I am going to try and cover of all the points at hand in bullet form.
Reporting season is finally upon us, and for the next few weeks it’s our intention to spend more time offering feedback on local company results and valuations than commentary on the global macro outlook.
For the fourth week in a row, the ASX200 has paused at or around 6250-6300 mark. But who wants to talk about the boring old index when we can marvel at Afterpay’s stunning +43% rise this week!
Another week of consolidation across markets. Probably the main change to note this week, was the slightly more optimistic tone to come from out of China.
Just like last week, and the week before, and the week before that, our share-market remains ensconced in the push-pull of a strong US economy and share-market and the undercurrent of future trade protectionism.
Trade continues to be in focus as tariffs came into play and it was a case of sell on the news but buy on the event as equities sold off in the lead up to tariffs before rebounding on the day they came into play.
When it comes to decisions about your financial future, purchasing property as an investment has increasingly become a popular choice. However, with every investment comes some level of risk.
The past month was positive for Australian equities with the S&P/ASX up 3.15% over the past four weeks. Banks drove gains as they rebounded in recent weeks following several weak months on the back of the Royal Commission.
A New Year is invariably synonymous with making a list of (often overly ambitious) lifestyle resolutions around eating healthier, exercising more, cutting down on vices and finding a better work-life balance.
Once again, global share-markets have managed to remain resilient in the face of perplexing US trade policy on tariffs. This week President Trump proposed tariffs on a further US$200bn of Chinese products exported to the US.
The US has been closed for most of this week and hence been untroubled by the weakness. Australia too has similarly displayed little concern from the deteriorating environment across north Asian share-markets, and again remains at ‘decade-plus’ highs.
The ASX200 initially pulled back alongside ongoing emerging market weakness, but yet again, through the latter part of the week, buyers stepped up again to take us back to last week’s 10-year plus high.
The domestic S&P/ASX 200 was largely flat as banks and financials continued to trend lower, offset by rises in healthcare and exporters on the back of a lower Australian Dollar.
Last week, the government secured the largest tax cuts in Australian history to come into effect from 1 July 2018.
Markets have generally remained resilient despite the headlines and Trump’s tendency to vacillate on policy decisions. Whilst headlines are likely to continue to be the near-term focus for markets, liquidity will be the bigger issue for the medium-term.
Are you considering, or currently in the process of, selling your home? If so, we would strongly encourage you to speak to one of our advisors before making any final decisions.
It’s worth understanding why we moved the way we did this week, and in large part it’s down to knock on effects associated with regional share-market weakness, particularly in China.
I am sure I sound like a broken record, but the trend remains a strong one and this move comes in large part due to the falling Australian Dollar, which this week is under 75c and just off a 12-month low.
Since we are now getting the usual slew of monthly economic data out, its perhaps a terrific opportunity to offer a quick summary of how I see both the U.S and local economy, and how this view is driving our broader portfolio thoughts.
Whilst markets ended up a shade lower across the board, there was real fear felt specifically in Europe this week as the two major parties aiming to form government there fought over the appointment of a finance minister.
Global economic growth remains strong as well, but worries of rising rates are still weighing on investments.
Equities rebounded over the month as 80% of companies beat expectations so far in this earnings season.
This week we saw the broader equity indices do very little across Australia, the U.S, Asia and Europe, however for the first time in many months, macro concerns began bubbling to the surface and are worthy of our attention.
This week was a sad reminder of how quickly the market can remove any sense of invincibility, with Telstra (TLS) warning that 2018 cash profits would likely land at the low end of their previously forecast guidance.
We spoke last week of the surprising outperformance of Australian equities relative to the rest of the world in early May, and our expectation that it would unwind soon enough, and this week the market duly obliged.
The Federal Budget 2018-19 was recently announced by treasurer Scott Morrison. With the major shake-up to superannuation and retirement policies occurring in last year’s budget and effective from 1 July 2017.
There was the most almighty buyer of Australian shares this week, and it caused the vast majority of market players to ask questions as to why things moved the way they did.
Markets remained under pressure over the month. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell over 1.5% in the past month as the potential of further escalation in trade protectionism and increased political tensions instigated risk-off sentiment.
With 30 June 2018 fast approaching, many advisors and tax agents have been continuing to grapple with the superannuation changes.
Jonathon Bayes, Chief Investment Officer - Partners Wealth Group, and Kerry Craig, Global Market Strategist - J.P Morgan, share their views on the local and global economic outlook.
This was an important week for markets and investors, and I hope everyone takes 5-minutes out of their day to quickly read through my simple thoughts.
Prior to 9am this morning, I’d have thought the escalating rhetoric around tariffs had potentially found some equilibrium. Though the Chinese returned fire earlier in the week with a clap-back of its own on $50bn of US exports to China.
the tech-heavy NASDAQ index in the U.S lost nearly -3% Friday, rallied +4% Monday, lost -3% Tuesday and then -1% on Wednesday night.
Volatility has continued following the structural shift in early February. While this environment seems high relative to the calm of last year, as touched on last month, this is a much more normal environment for investments.
Dominating headlines this week was the heightened trade tension between China and the U.S, and the data privacy issues surrounding Facebook (FB).
In a week where Australian business confidence reached its best level in 20 years, share-markets did very little.
The week in global share-markets was dominated by the tit-for-tat over Trump’s new steel and aluminium tariffs and the rather disappointing news that Trump’s well-regarded senior economic advisor Gary Cohn had chosen to resign on account of this policy.
Share-markets across the globe eased back as the week passed, with a few new and relevant cracks beginning to appear in what up until early February had been a wholeheartedly optimistic outlook.
Across our portfolio of holding’s we probably came out somewhere in the middle, which as a value-styled investor, is a win in my books – buying ‘value’ is rarely rewarded during results season.
Jonathan Bayes, Chief Investment Officer and Mathew Cassidy, Managing Director – Partners Wealth Group, provide a summary on recent market movements, particularly in relation to the big drop in the value of the sharemarket, and what to expect in the comin
The Australian Government released a consultation paper containing proposed amendments to TRIS legislation, which if implemented would be backdated to 1 July 2017.
The Privacy Act sets out the rules that must be followed when a business deals with personal information.
Australian home loan interest rates remain at historic lows, and the opportunities for paying off a mortgage early are better than ever.
As alluded to in earlier issues, low volatility did not last and investors saw a turbulent start to February with bonds and equities both selling off, with markets blaming algorithmic traders and low volatility funds for exacerbating the situation.
For now, global economic momentum remains sound and I think equity investors will remain sanguine to the steadily rising bond yield so long as the move higher is steady and not driven by a surprise bout of inflation.
This week’s market sell-off has everyone scrambling for the ‘why’, and I have seen a list of multiple explanations for this week’s sell off, which is rarely of any value to anyone after the fact.
Share-markets are flat to down across the globe this week, and have had a heavier burden to carry since bond-yields continue their trend higher.
With the holiday weekend approaching, I’ll keep this week’s note nice and sharp. The local market bounced a little, but is still left underperforming key indices in the U.S, Asia and even Europe.
Partners Wealth Group, provide an end of year summary for 2017, and explain why we are welcoming 2018 with a positive economic outlook.
The start of 2018 brings with it continued optimism for Australian equity markets driven in large part by increasing evidence of improving local economic demand and surging global business activity.
We will again highlight our expectation that Australian shares will lag their foreign peer group in 2018 in our outlook piece provided in this month’s Monthly Perspective.
I am starting the new year in a positive mood. For those of you reading these weeklies, you will have noted that in the past 2-3 months I have become progressively more upbeat on Australia’s domestic economic prospects.
I am undeniably more optimistic on Australia’s domestic economy than I have been in 18 months, and think the improving outlook for capital investment will reflect itself well certain industries.
It has been a red-letter week for the Australian economy, with another strong employment report and a jump in consumer confidence to a 4-year high.
Partners Wealth Group, wrap up market movements for 2017 and look at the local and global economic outlook for the new year.
Autonomous driving promises more fluid and safe travel and could lower travelling costs. Such a saving would trigger a major shift in consumer-spending patterns, while upending industries.
From 1 July 2018, SMSFs with members who have over $1M total superannuation balances will have to report transfer balance cap credits and debits within 28 days after the end of the quarter that they occur in.
A flattish week, but impressive all the same. I say impressive, because good markets rotate well, and this market continues to do just that, allowing the laggards to play catch up.
Australian employment figures were weaker than expected this month, but previous months’ figures were revised upwards, sending the unemployment rate lower to 5.4%.
Manufacturing is picking up again too after a brief period of consolidation. To be sure, in no way does this counter the massive structural issues Australia’s economy faces.
Our market idled away, posting small gains, but in all there was little new to mention beyond a few AGM remarks.
Equities and other risk assets rallied strongly once again, with growth stocks continuing to lead the way. In the current bull market, the growth style of investing has led the way, but does this mean that value investing is dead?
We had some consolidation in markets locally, after what has been a pretty tidy rise this past 6 weeks. For now, sentiment remains entirely hostage to the passing of US tax reform legislation.
Equity markets globally have been buoyed by the oddly perfect combination of economic strength & a well-behaved bond market.
The economic optimism continues to drive investment markets to ever higher levels, but there are obvious pockets of investor exuberance that should be noted lest complacency creep in.
With global growth momentum as good as it’s been since the GFC, it has felt only a matter of time before we should be seeing higher bond yields and a stronger US-dollar.
The CGT relief allows trustees to elect to reset the cost base of assets that will no longer be eligible to support tax-exempt superannuation income streams from 1 July 2017 to their market value.
Jonathan Bayes, Chief Investment Officer – Partners Wealth Group, and Haydn Scott, Vice President – Global Wealth Management, PIMCO, share their views on the local and global economic outlook.
Strong global growth and a still compliant bond market are the key drivers of equity markets at the moment, and long may that continue, though my worries on US inflation and bond markets continue to rise.
Following several months of strong employment data, the Australian consumer has finally shown some positivity, with sentiment up 3.6%.
We have noted on several occasions the sensitivity to economic improvement that the small-cap sector has, and this is bearing fruit with continued outperformance.
What’s become very apparent in the past fortnight is just the kick in performance terms from foreign investments since the start of September.
An early release of the weekly update this week given the public holiday in Victoria on Friday. The weather is turning and with daylight savings kicking in this weekend, the future is looking a little brighter.
Though we remain within the same trading range, this week we saw a notable shift in market leadership, with miners finally relinquishing some strength and oils catching a bit of a tailwind.
This month, we look at the themes that came out of the 2017 Financial Year’s reporting season, and how companies could be priming themselves for future growth.
We got an early look at the Chinese manufacturing data for September, with satellite imagery showing a moderate improvement this month, despite many headlines this week focusing on data from August
Australian households remain deeply levered and unwilling or unable to loosen the purse strings (as evidenced by this week’s disappointing retail sales figure).
August manufacturing sector survey data pointed to the best outcome since 2002 which is certainly encouraging, though to be clear, manufacturing only comprises some 7% of the local workforce now.
With the super reforms resulting in a lot of pre 30 June advice requirements for your clients, we are now operating under the new regime.
This month, we look at how investors should act in a higher volatility environment and the potential opportunities that follow suit.
This month we look at the Federal Reserve balance sheet, Australian market movements, the new diversified lending fund we are introducing and what to expect in the month to come.
At Partners Wealth Group we use this time to ask the question – how can we continue to improve our services to you to ultimately deliver a superior client experience?
Even in spite of the political uncertainty that has bubbled to the surface in the past 12 months, global economies have in fact done surprisingly well.
Volatility has been low across all investment markets as investors search for direction, but has started to pick up over the last couple of weeks. Earnings and economic growth expectations have driven markets higher this calendar year
Political risks have been at the forefront of investors’ minds but this has failed to curb risk appetite as international equities have been fairly flat
This month we give a wrap up on both the local and international economy, and the implications for Australian investors.
The world looks to be in a period of synchronised growth which has led the International Monetary Fund to upgrade global growth forecasts this month, despite weaker than expected US GDP data and activity indicators.
The Federal Budget 2017-18 includes a number of proposals that if approved, could impact your financial strategy. Our specialist team explain how the Federal Budget could impact you.
Retail spending and consumer sentiment remain weak as Australians continue to commit large amounts of their incomes to mortgage repayments.
As ASIC ramps up their surveillance of accountants providing advice outside of the legislation, have you considered how you provide advice to your clients?
The pension transfer cap on superannuation retirement pensions will apply from 1 July 2017.
If you have elderly relatives, you may be faced with deciding the best ways to support them as they age
Equity markets have pushed higher over the past month as economic indicators continue to paint a rosy global growth picture, and the corporate earnings season was slightly better than expected.
With the superannuation reforms coming into effect from 1 July 2017, a major change is the lowering of both the concessional (pre-tax) and non-concessional (after-tax) contribution limits.
What are the hardest aspects of running your self-managed super fund (SMSF)? Is it the paperwork, all of the investment rules or the fundamental challenge of choosing where to invest your money?
In the last decade, allocations to EMD in portfolios have grown in prominence not only due to the additional yield available but also because of the diversification benefits it offers to investors
The Australian housing market continues to remain strong despite more stringent regulations put in place, and efforts by Chinese authorities to limit cash outflows.
Some of the biggest changes to superannuation since the early 90s are coming into effect from 1 July 2017. We explain the main changes to these superannuation rules and how they may impact you.
Though the world is an undeniably better place, Australia’s economy has failed to keep pace with the improving sentiment seen beyond our shores during 2016.
Meeting with a financial advisor for the first time may seem overwhelming. However, at Partners Wealth Group we make the financial advice process simple to get you on track to achieve your financial and lifestyle goals.
The team at Partners Wealth Group were exceptionally proactive, responsive, friendly and above all highly knowledgeable, which gave me great confidence. This was a great client experience and one that I would highly recommend.
Ben Robb | Partners Wealth Group client since 2006
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