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Markets had a better tone to them this week and were led by a rebound in sentiment in Asia. Gains in Chinese and other Asian share-markets helped fuel positive sentiment in the local miners, reversing 2-3 months of underperformance from that sector.
We drifted again this week and there wasn’t a huge amount to discuss in terms of news-flow or themes, which makes for any easy summary to write.
When coupled with the ongoing weakness in the Australian Dollar, which this week fell to a fresh 2 year low, Australian shares year to date are rather significantly underperforming their U.S peer group by around -15%.
This week we saw quite a few mid-cap ‘market darlings’ miss numbers which led to their shares prices falling sharply.
Geopolitical risks have continued to plague the markets this year, as the US raises tariffs on Turkish goods and has indicated that it may continue to escalate trade wars with China and Russia as well.
At the end of a manic week, and with a heavy focus on corporate earnings, I think I am going to try and cover of all the points at hand in bullet form.
Reporting season is finally upon us, and for the next few weeks it’s our intention to spend more time offering feedback on local company results and valuations than commentary on the global macro outlook.
For the fourth week in a row, the ASX200 has paused at or around 6250-6300 mark. But who wants to talk about the boring old index when we can marvel at Afterpay’s stunning +43% rise this week!
Another week of consolidation across markets. Probably the main change to note this week, was the slightly more optimistic tone to come from out of China.
Just like last week, and the week before, and the week before that, our share-market remains ensconced in the push-pull of a strong US economy and share-market and the undercurrent of future trade protectionism.
Trade continues to be in focus as tariffs came into play and it was a case of sell on the news but buy on the event as equities sold off in the lead up to tariffs before rebounding on the day they came into play.
When it comes to decisions about your financial future, purchasing property as an investment has increasingly become a popular choice. However, with every investment comes some level of risk.
The past month was positive for Australian equities with the S&P/ASX up 3.15% over the past four weeks. Banks drove gains as they rebounded in recent weeks following several weak months on the back of the Royal Commission.
A New Year is invariably synonymous with making a list of (often overly ambitious) lifestyle resolutions around eating healthier, exercising more, cutting down on vices and finding a better work-life balance.
Once again, global share-markets have managed to remain resilient in the face of perplexing US trade policy on tariffs. This week President Trump proposed tariffs on a further US$200bn of Chinese products exported to the US.
The US has been closed for most of this week and hence been untroubled by the weakness. Australia too has similarly displayed little concern from the deteriorating environment across north Asian share-markets, and again remains at ‘decade-plus’ highs.
The ASX200 initially pulled back alongside ongoing emerging market weakness, but yet again, through the latter part of the week, buyers stepped up again to take us back to last week’s 10-year plus high.
The domestic S&P/ASX 200 was largely flat as banks and financials continued to trend lower, offset by rises in healthcare and exporters on the back of a lower Australian Dollar.
Markets have generally remained resilient despite the headlines and Trump’s tendency to vacillate on policy decisions. Whilst headlines are likely to continue to be the near-term focus for markets, liquidity will be the bigger issue for the medium-term.
Since we are now getting the usual slew of monthly economic data out, its perhaps a terrific opportunity to offer a quick summary of how I see both the U.S and local economy, and how this view is driving our broader portfolio thoughts.
Global economic growth remains strong as well, but worries of rising rates are still weighing on investments.
Equities rebounded over the month as 80% of companies beat expectations so far in this earnings season.
This week we saw the broader equity indices do very little across Australia, the U.S, Asia and Europe, however for the first time in many months, macro concerns began bubbling to the surface and are worthy of our attention.
This week was a sad reminder of how quickly the market can remove any sense of invincibility, with Telstra (TLS) warning that 2018 cash profits would likely land at the low end of their previously forecast guidance.
The Federal Budget 2018-19 was recently announced by treasurer Scott Morrison. With the major shake-up to superannuation and retirement policies occurring in last year’s budget and effective from 1 July 2017.
Markets remained under pressure over the month. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell over 1.5% in the past month as the potential of further escalation in trade protectionism and increased political tensions instigated risk-off sentiment.
Jonathon Bayes, Chief Investment Officer - Partners Wealth Group, and Kerry Craig, Global Market Strategist - J.P Morgan, share their views on the local and global economic outlook.
Dominating headlines this week was the heightened trade tension between China and the U.S, and the data privacy issues surrounding Facebook (FB).
In a week where Australian business confidence reached its best level in 20 years, share-markets did very little.
The week in global share-markets was dominated by the tit-for-tat over Trump’s new steel and aluminium tariffs and the rather disappointing news that Trump’s well-regarded senior economic advisor Gary Cohn had chosen to resign on account of this policy.
Share-markets across the globe eased back as the week passed, with a few new and relevant cracks beginning to appear in what up until early February had been a wholeheartedly optimistic outlook.
Across our portfolio of holding’s we probably came out somewhere in the middle, which as a value-styled investor, is a win in my books – buying ‘value’ is rarely rewarded during results season.
As alluded to in earlier issues, low volatility did not last and investors saw a turbulent start to February with bonds and equities both selling off, with markets blaming algorithmic traders and low volatility funds for exacerbating the situation.
For now, global economic momentum remains sound and I think equity investors will remain sanguine to the steadily rising bond yield so long as the move higher is steady and not driven by a surprise bout of inflation.
This week’s market sell-off has everyone scrambling for the ‘why’, and I have seen a list of multiple explanations for this week’s sell off, which is rarely of any value to anyone after the fact.
Share-markets are flat to down across the globe this week, and have had a heavier burden to carry since bond-yields continue their trend higher.
With the holiday weekend approaching, I’ll keep this week’s note nice and sharp. The local market bounced a little, but is still left underperforming key indices in the U.S, Asia and even Europe.
Partners Wealth Group, provide an end of year summary for 2017, and explain why we are welcoming 2018 with a positive economic outlook.
The start of 2018 brings with it continued optimism for Australian equity markets driven in large part by increasing evidence of improving local economic demand and surging global business activity.
We will again highlight our expectation that Australian shares will lag their foreign peer group in 2018 in our outlook piece provided in this month’s Monthly Perspective.
I am starting the new year in a positive mood. For those of you reading these weeklies, you will have noted that in the past 2-3 months I have become progressively more upbeat on Australia’s domestic economic prospects.
I am undeniably more optimistic on Australia’s domestic economy than I have been in 18 months, and think the improving outlook for capital investment will reflect itself well certain industries.
It has been a red-letter week for the Australian economy, with another strong employment report and a jump in consumer confidence to a 4-year high.
Partners Wealth Group, wrap up market movements for 2017 and look at the local and global economic outlook for the new year.
A flattish week, but impressive all the same. I say impressive, because good markets rotate well, and this market continues to do just that, allowing the laggards to play catch up.
Australian employment figures were weaker than expected this month, but previous months’ figures were revised upwards, sending the unemployment rate lower to 5.4%.
Manufacturing is picking up again too after a brief period of consolidation. To be sure, in no way does this counter the massive structural issues Australia’s economy faces.
Our market idled away, posting small gains, but in all there was little new to mention beyond a few AGM remarks.
Equities and other risk assets rallied strongly once again, with growth stocks continuing to lead the way. In the current bull market, the growth style of investing has led the way, but does this mean that value investing is dead?
We had some consolidation in markets locally, after what has been a pretty tidy rise this past 6 weeks. For now, sentiment remains entirely hostage to the passing of US tax reform legislation.
Equity markets globally have been buoyed by the oddly perfect combination of economic strength & a well-behaved bond market.
The economic optimism continues to drive investment markets to ever higher levels, but there are obvious pockets of investor exuberance that should be noted lest complacency creep in.
With global growth momentum as good as it’s been since the GFC, it has felt only a matter of time before we should be seeing higher bond yields and a stronger US-dollar.
Client expectations and scrutiny on the products and services you provide are ever-increasing. This changing climate brings challenges and risks to your business that was once not thought possible.
Jonathan Bayes, Chief Investment Officer – Partners Wealth Group, and Haydn Scott, Vice President – Global Wealth Management, PIMCO, share their views on the local and global economic outlook.
Strong global growth and a still compliant bond market are the key drivers of equity markets at the moment, and long may that continue, though my worries on US inflation and bond markets continue to rise.
Following several months of strong employment data, the Australian consumer has finally shown some positivity, with sentiment up 3.6%.
We have noted on several occasions the sensitivity to economic improvement that the small-cap sector has, and this is bearing fruit with continued outperformance.
What’s become very apparent in the past fortnight is just the kick in performance terms from foreign investments since the start of September.
An early release of the weekly update this week given the public holiday in Victoria on Friday. The weather is turning and with daylight savings kicking in this weekend, the future is looking a little brighter.
This month, we look at the themes that came out of the 2017 Financial Year’s reporting season, and how companies could be priming themselves for future growth.
We got an early look at the Chinese manufacturing data for September, with satellite imagery showing a moderate improvement this month, despite many headlines this week focusing on data from August
Australian households remain deeply levered and unwilling or unable to loosen the purse strings (as evidenced by this week’s disappointing retail sales figure).
August manufacturing sector survey data pointed to the best outcome since 2002 which is certainly encouraging, though to be clear, manufacturing only comprises some 7% of the local workforce now.
This month, we look at how investors should act in a higher volatility environment and the potential opportunities that follow suit.
This month we look at the Federal Reserve balance sheet, Australian market movements, the new diversified lending fund we are introducing and what to expect in the month to come.
It’s important to know what options are available to you for protecting your family’s future in the event of the unexpected.
Even in spite of the political uncertainty that has bubbled to the surface in the past 12 months, global economies have in fact done surprisingly well.
Volatility has been low across all investment markets as investors search for direction, but has started to pick up over the last couple of weeks. Earnings and economic growth expectations have driven markets higher this calendar year
Political risks have been at the forefront of investors’ minds but this has failed to curb risk appetite as international equities have been fairly flat
This month we give a wrap up on both the local and international economy, and the implications for Australian investors.
The world looks to be in a period of synchronised growth which has led the International Monetary Fund to upgrade global growth forecasts this month, despite weaker than expected US GDP data and activity indicators.
The Federal Budget 2017-18 includes a number of proposals that if approved, could impact your financial strategy. Our specialist team explain how the Federal Budget could impact you.
most Australians don’t consider protecting their ability to earn the income that funds their lives and those of their families.
In the last decade, allocations to EMD in portfolios have grown in prominence not only due to the additional yield available but also because of the diversification benefits it offers to investors
When you talk to us about your insurance needs, you will discover a highly experienced team of experts who specialise in insurance.
We start by carefully examining your current and future needs.
We then conduct a deep and thorough search for the best insurance solutions for you. We take the time to explain to you what you need and why you need it, so you can make the most informed decisions.
You can rest assured you will be offered a comprehensive range of solutions that are very highly attuned to your individual needs.
At Partners Wealth Group, we won’t just help you find the right insurance for your needs.
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